WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 8 International Monetary Fund | January 2025 Estimate Estimate 2023 2024 2025 2026 2025 2026 2024 2025 2026 World Output 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3 0.1 0.0 3.4 3.2 3.1 Advanced Economies 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8 0.1 0.0 1.8 1.9 1.7 United States 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.1 0.5 0.1 2.7 2.4 2.1 Euro Area 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.4 –0.2 –0.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 Germany –0.3 –0.2 0.3 1.1 –0.5 –0.3 –0.1 0.8 0.9 France 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.1 –0.3 –0.2 0.7 1.0 1.2 Italy 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 –0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.7 Spain 2.7 3.1 2.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 3.2 1.9 2.0 Japan 1.5 –0.2 1.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.7 United Kingdom 0.3 0.9 1.6 1.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 1.8 1.3 Canada 1.5 1.3 2.0 2.0 –0.4 0.0 1.8 2.1 1.9 Other Advanced Economies 3/ 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 –0.1 0.0 1.7 2.8 1.7 Emerging Market and Developing Economies 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.3 0.0 0.1 4.6 4.2 4.2 Emerging and Developing Asia 5.7 5.2 5.1 5.1 0.1 0.2 5.6 4.9 5.1 China 5.2 4.8 4.6 4.5 0.1 0.4 4.9 4.5 4.5 India 4/ 8.2 6.5 6.5 6.5 0.0 0.0 7.5 6.5 6.5 Emerging and Developing Europe 3.3 3.2 2.2 2.4 0.0 –0.1 2.3 2.9 1.6 Russia 3.6 3.8 1.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 2.7 1.2 1.2 Latin America and the Caribbean 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.7 0.0 0.0 2.6 2.7 2.4 Brazil 3.2 3.7 2.2 2.2 0.0 –0.1 4.1 2.1 2.3 Mexico 3.3 1.8 1.4 2.0 0.1 0.0 1.8 1.4 2.1 Middle East and Central Asia 2.0 2.4 3.6 3.9 –0.3 –0.3 . . . . . . . . . Saudi Arabia –0.8 1.4 3.3 4.1 –1.3 –0.3 5.0 1.2 4.1 Sub-Saharan Africa 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.2 0.0 –0.2 . . . . . . . . . Nigeria 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 3.7 3.8 South Africa 0.7 0.8 1.5 1.6 0.0 0.1 1.7 0.6 2.2 Memorandum World Growth Based on Market Exchange Rates 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.8 0.1 0.1 2.9 2.7 2.6 European Union 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.7 –0.2 0.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 ASEAN-5 5/ 4.0 4.5 4.6 4.5 0.1 0.0 4.9 3.9 5.0 Middle East and North Africa 1.8 2.0 3.5 3.9 –0.5 –0.3 . . . . . . . . . Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.2 0.0 0.1 4.6 4.2 4.2 Low-Income Developing Countries 4.1 4.1 4.6 5.4 –0.1 –0.2 . . . . . . . . . World Trade Volume (goods and services) 6/ 0.7 3.4 3.2 3.3 –0.2 –0.1 . . . . . . . . . Advanced Economies 0.0 2.2 2.1 2.5 –0.5 –0.3 . . . . . . . . . Emerging Market and Developing Economies 2.0 5.4 5.0 4.6 0.3 0.2 . . . . . . . . . Commodity Prices Oil 7/ –16.4 –1.9 –11.7 –2.6 –1.3 1.0 –10.8 –5.0 –2.2 Nonfuel (average based on world commodity import –5.7 3.4 2.5 –0.1 2.7 –0.9 7.1 0.1 0.5 World Consumer Prices 8/ 6.7 5.7 4.2 3.5 –0.1 –0.1 5.2 3.5 3.0 Advanced Economies 9/ 4.6 2.6 2.1 2.0 0.1 0.0 2.2 2.1 2.0 Emerging Market and Developing Economies 8/ 8.1 7.8 5.6 4.5 –0.3 –0.2 7.6 4.6 3.8 Note: Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during October 22–November 19, 2024. Economies are listed on the basis of economic size. The aggregated quarterly data are seasonally adjusted. "..." indicates that data are not available or not applicable. WEO = World Economic Outlook. 1/ Difference based on rounded figures for the current and October 2024 WEO forecasts. Countries for which forecasts have been updated relative to October 2024 WEO forecasts account for approximately 90 percent of world GDP measured at purchasing-power-parity weights. 2/ For World Output (Emerging M arket and Developing Economies), the quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 90 percent (80 percent) of annual world (emerging market and developing economies) output at purchasing-power-parity weights. 3/ Excludes the Group of Seven (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and euro area countries. 4/ For India, data and projections are presented on a fiscal year (FY) basis, with FY 2023/24 (starting in April 2023) shown in the 2023 column. India's growth projections are 6.8 percent for 2025 and 6.5 percent for 2026 based on calendar year. 5/ Indonesia, M alaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand. 6/ Simple average of growth rates for export and import volumes (goods and services). 7/ Simple average of prices of UK Brent, Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil. The average assumed price of oil in US dollars a barrel, based on futures markets (as of November 20, 2024), is $69.76 for 2025 and $67.96 for 2026. 8/ Excludes Venezuela. 9/ The assumed inflation rate for the euro area is 2.1percent for 2025 and 2.0 percent for 2026, that for Japan is 2.0 percent for 2025 and 2.0 percent for 2026, and that for the United States is 2.0 percent for 2025 and 2.1percent for 2026. Q4 over Q4 2/ Table 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections Projections Projections Year over Year (Percent change, unless noted otherwise) Difference from October 2024 WEO Projections 1/
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