Global Market Insights Strategy Team Vincent Juvyns Luxembourg Tilmann Galler, CFA Frankfurt Maria Paola Toschi Milan Shogo Maekawa Tokyo Kerry Craig, CFA Melbourne Karen Ward London Chaoping Zhu, CFA Shanghai Max McKechnie London Hugh Gimber, CFA London Agnes Lin Taipei Americas Europe Asia Marcella Chow Hong Kong Ian Hui Hong Kong Sahil Gauba Mumbai Lucia Gutierrez Mellado Madrid Elena Domecq Madrid Tai Hui Hong Kong Dr. David Kelly, CFA New York Gabriela Santos New York Natasha May London Zara Nokes London Marina Valentini São Paulo Stephanie Aliaga New York Meera Pandit, CFA New York Jack Manley New York Aaron Mulvihill, CFA New York Mary Park Durham New York Brandon Hall New York Jennifer Qiu, CFA Hong Kong Arthur Jiang Shanghai Raisah Rasid Singapore Grace Wyckoff New York Aaron Hussein, CAIA London Fumiaki Morioka Tokyo Katie B Korngiebel New York Jordan Jackson New York Grant Papa New York Adrian Wong Hong Kong
S&P 500 Price Index 600 1,000 1,400 1,800 2,200 2,600 3,000 3,400 3,800 4,200 4,600 5,000 5,400 5,800 6,200 6,600 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 +106% -49% +101% -57% +401% -34% +114% Dec. 31, 1996 P/E (fwd.) = 15.9x 741 Oct. 9, 2002 P/E (fwd.) = 14.1x 777 Mar. 24, 2000 P/E (fwd.) = 25.2x 1,527 Oct. 9, 2007 P/E (fwd.) = 15.1x 1,565 Mar. 9, 2009 P/E (fwd.) = 10.4x 677 Feb. 19, 2020 P/E (fwd.) = 19.2x 3,386 Mar. 23, 2020 P/E (fwd.) = 13.3x 2,237 Dec. 31, 2024 P/E (fwd.) = 21.5x 5,882 Characteristic 3/24/2000 10/9/2007 2/19/2020 1/3/2022 12/31/2024 Index Level 1,527 1,565 3,386 4,797 5,882 P/E Ratio (fwd.) 25.2x 15.1x 19.2x 21.4x 21.5x Dividend Yield 1.4% 1.9% 1.9% 1.3% 1.3% 10-yr. Treasury 6.2% 4.7% 1.6% 1.6% 4.6% -25% Jan. 3, 2022 P/E (fwd.) = 21.4x 4,797 +64% Oct. 12, 2022 P/E (fwd.) = 15.7x 3,577
S&P 500 Index: Forward P/E ratio 8x 10x 12x 14x 16x 18x 20x 22x 24x 26x 28x 30x '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24 30-year average: 16.9x -1 Std. dev.: 13.6x +1 Std. dev.: 20.1x Valuation measure Description Latest 30-year avg.* Std. dev. over/under-valued P/E Forward P/E 21.47x 16.86x 1.41 CAPE Shiller's P/E 37.04x 28.02x 1.48 Div. Yield Dividend yield 1.33% 1.98% 1.82 P/B Price to book 4.47x 3.19x 1.52 P/CF Price to cash flow 16.48x 11.34x 2.17 EY Spread EY minus Baa yield -0.85% 0.69% 0.71 Dec. 31, 2024: 21.5x
Forward P/E and subsequent 1-yr. returns Forward P/E and subsequent 5-yr. annualized returns S&P 500 Total Return Index S&P 500 Total Return Index -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 8x 11x 14x 17x 20x 23x 26x R² = 7% Dec. 31, 2024: 21.5x -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 8x 11x 14x 17x 20x 23x 26x R² = 20% Dec. 31, 2024: 21.5x
S&P 500 year-over-year pro forma EPS growth S&P 500 profit margins Annual growth broken into changes in revenue, profit margin and share count Quarterly earnings/sales 14%13% -16% 6% 9% 24% 14%15% -3% -16%-16% 41% 14% 6% 6% 7% 0% 1% 12% 21% 1% -14% 48% 5% 0% 9% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23 '25 '24F: $239 '25F: $274 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17 '20 '23 Recession 3Q24: 12.8%* Share of EPS growth 2024* Avg. '01-'23 Margin 8.2% 2.7% Revenue 1.4% 4.2% Share count -0.9% 0.3% Total EPS 8.7% 7.2% '26F: $311
S&P 500 sector pro forma EPS growth Year-over-year Weight* 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4QF 1QF 2QF 3QF 4QF Tech. 32% 14% 1% -1% -9% -8% 4% 14% 23% 25% 20% 8% 15% 17% 20% 30% 20% Financials 14% -19% -21% -18% -13% -5% -2% 12% -21% 9% 17% 7% 38% 6% 2% 7% 15% Health Care 10% 15% 8% 0% -4% -15% -27% -18% -15% -25% 19% 14% 13% 42% 13% 14% 17% Cons. Disc. 11% -29% -16% 7% -19% 38% 48% 38% 27% 21% 10% 8% 11% 10% 7% 8% 16% Comm. Services 9% -1% -21% -23% -26% -14% 20% 44% 44% 42% 8% 26% 23% 9% 33% 5% 13% Industrials 8% 38% 33% 20% 40% 24% 12% 9% 4% 2% -3% -11% -4% 10% 10% 30% 19% Cons. Staples 6% 8% 2% 1% 1% 3% 8% 7% 6% 6% 4% 4% 0% 0% 5% 6% 9% Energy 3% 282% 301% 140% 58% 19% -49% -34% -23% -24% 0% -28% -29% -12% -3% 15% 21% Utilities 2% 27% -4% -8% 10% -23% -3% 10% 31% 28% 21% -2% -2% 9% 3% 16% 11% Materials 2% 47% 17% -12% -18% -20% -24% -16% -21% -21% -8% -11% 2% 7% 8% 29% 27% Real Estate 2% 19% 6% 11% 8% -1% 5% -1% 3% 6% 0% 2% 2% 1% 3% 6% 7% S&P 500 10% 7% 3% -3% -1% -4% 6% 4% 6% 11% 5% 11% 11% 11% 15% 17% Total shareholder yield by sector Last 12-months dividends and buybacks minus issuance divided by market cap 2022 2023 2024 2025 3.2% 0.6% 1.4% 2.1% 1.8% 1.3% 1.2% 1.6% 2.7% 0.6% 0.6% 3.0% 3.5% 3.2% 2.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.6% 1.6% 1.2% -0.1% 1.4% 1.2% -1.4% 6.6% 3.8% 3.5% 3.2% 3.1% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.6% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Energy Comm. Svcs. Financials Cons. Staples Materials Industrials S&P 500 Health Care Utilities Info. Tech. Cons. Disc. Real Estate Buyback yield Dividend yield
Value vs. Growth relative valuations Value vs. Growth in different interest rate environments Rel. fwd. P/E ratio of Value vs. Growth, 1997 - present Annualized total return by 10-year Treasury rate ranges, 1979 - present 15.4% 18.6% 7.1% 10.9% 15.0% 11.2% 10.5% 6.4% 10.4% 16.2% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 0-2% 2-3% 3-4% 4-5% >5% U.S. 10-year Treasury rate ranges Growth Value 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23 Recession Value cheap/Growth expensive Growth cheap/Value expensive Style Current Longterm avg.* Current Longterm avg.* Value 16.2x 14.2x 2.2% 2.6% Growth 28.9x 21.1x 0.6% 1.3% Forward P/E Div. yield** Long-term avg.*: 0.71 % of time Dec. 31, 2024: 0.54 11% 14% 11% 14% 49%
Corporate cash as a % of current assets by sector Research & development and capex by sector 2Q24 Share of total S&P 500 R&D and capex by sector, current vs. average 2% 3% 4% 4% 8% 9% 3% 10% 8% 12% 2% 9% 5% 12% 8% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 12% 22% 23% 24% 25% 30% 31% 32% 37% 46% 46% 47% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Growth Value Average (last 10 years) Growth - Capex Value - Capex Growth - R&D Value - R&D
P/E ratio of the top 10 and remaining stocks in the S&P 500 Weight of the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 Next 12 months, 1996 - present % of market capitalization of the S&P 500 Economic concentration in the S&P 500 % of S&P 500 metric, 3Q24 41% 26% 24% 19% 13% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% R&D Expense Free Cash Flow Operating Income Capex Sales Employees 12% 16% 20% 24% 28% 32% 36% 40% 44% '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24 9x 14x 19x 24x 29x 34x 39x 44x '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24 Dec. 31, 2024: 38.7% Current Average %of avg. Top 10 29.8x 20.6x 145% Remaining stocks 18.2x 15.7x 115% S&P 500 21.5x 16.6x 129% Top 10
Performance of “Magnificent 7” stocks in S&P 500* Earnings growth Indexed to 100 on 1/1/2021, price return Pro forma EPS, estimates 4Q24 onwards, y/y Profit margins Quarterly earnings/sales -14% 31% 34% 21% 50% 35% 21% 23% 19% 21% 25% 21% 9% -4% 3% 13% -2% 6% 1% 8% 9% 8% 13% 15% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% '22 '23 '24 '25 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 '21 '22 '23 '24 Mag 7 S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 4Q20 2Q21 4Q21 2Q22 4Q22 2Q23 4Q23 2Q24 3Q24: 23.5% 3Q24: 9.3% Mag 7 S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 Returns '21 '22 '23 '24 S&P 500 27% -19% 24% 23% S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 17% -8% 8% 10% Magnificent 7 40% -40% 76% 48% Share of returns** 33% 56% 63% 55%
Sector composition Percent of unprofitable companies % of index market capitalization Pro forma EPS Earnings growth Pro forma EPS, y/y 28% 29% 20% 7% 32% 37% 32% 16% 41% 46% 53% 43% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Tech bubble Financial crisis COVID-19 Current 4% 6% 3% 5% 3% 18% 3% 16% 10% 19% 14% 5% 8% 6% 5% 5% 17% 4% 9% 11% 17% 14% 2% 2% 2% 3% 6% 8% 9% 10% 11% 14% 32% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Materials Real Estate Utilities Energy Cons. Staples Industrials Comm. Svcs. Health Care Cons. Discretionary Financials Info. Tech. Large cap Mid cap Small cap Growth Value Large cap 63% 37% Mid cap 38% 62% Small cap 43% 57% 5% 0% 9% 14% 11% 11% 15% 17% 7% 10% 5% 14% 13% 15% 16% 18% 12% -12% -13% 44% 5% 50% 53% 53% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% '22 '23 '24F '25F 1Q25F 2Q25F 3Q25F 4Q25F Large cap Mid cap Small cap
Current P/E vs. 20-year avg. P/E Value Blend Growth Value Blend Growth 16.2 21.5 28.9 13.8 15.9 19.3 15.4 17.4 28.2 14.5 16.4 20.8 17.2 24.2 39.5 16.8 21.5 25.7 Since market peak (January 2022) Since market low (October 2022) Current P/E as % of 20-year avg. PE Value Blend Growth Value Blend Growth Large 17.4% 28.5% 33.9% Large 42.3% 70.1% 96.2% Large Mid 12.1% 12.2% 13.7% Mid 39.6% 46.8% 64.2% Mid Small 4.6% 2.5% -0.5% Small 31.6% 36.6% 41.1% Small YTD 10-year annualized Mid 8.1% 9.6% 11.5% Mid 13.1% 15.3% 22.1% Value Blend Growth Large 8.5% 13.1% 16.8% Large 14.4% 25.0% 33.4% Large Mid Small 7.1% 7.8% 8.1% Small 8.1% 11.5% 15.2% Small 135.2% 102.3% 112.7% 153.9% Value Blend Growth 117.2% 135.4% 149.9% 105.8% 105.9%
Energy Materials Financials Industrials Cons. Disc. Tech. Comm. Services* Real Estate Health Care Cons. Staples Utilities S&P 500 Index S&P weight 3.2% 1.9% 13.6% 8.2% 11.3% 32.5% 9.4% 2.1% 10.1% 5.5% 2.3% 100.0% Russell Growth weight 0.4% 0.6% 6.5% 4.2% 15.9% 48.6% 13.3% 0.5% 6.6% 3.3% 0.2% 100.0% Russell Value weight 6.7% 4.2% 23.1% 14.7% 6.2% 9.3% 4.4% 4.7% 14.2% 7.9% 4.6% 100.0% Russell 2000 weight 5.1% 4.3% 18.7% 17.8% 9.7% 13.8% 2.7% 6.1% 16.3% 2.8% 2.7% 100.0% QTD -2.4 -12.4 7.1 -2.3 14.3 4.8 8.9 -8.5 -10.3 -3.3 -5.5 2.4 YTD 5.7 0.0 30.6 17.5 30.1 36.6 40.2 5.0 2.6 14.9 23.4 25.0 Since market peak (January 2022) 67.7 0.1 29.4 32.3 13.6 53.3 30.6 -12.0 3.7 14.8 17.6 28.5 Since market low (October 2022) 14.9 28.4 66.6 61.6 70.4 129.9 116.4 29.6 17.2 28.4 32.6 70.1 Beta to S&P 500 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 c 0.6 0.5 1.0 β Correl. to Treas. yields -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.7 ρ Foreign %of sales 37.2 52.2 28.2 33.1 35.5 56.4 48.9 17.7 34.1 39.3 1.0 41.6 % NTM earnings growth 4.1% 17.6% 8.3% 18.9% 11.5% 22.8% 14.5% 3.8% 20.3% 5.1% 8.5% 14.5% 20-yr avg. 100.4% 12.8% 20.5% 13.7% 16.7% 12.1% 12.0% 6.8% 8.1% 7.3% 4.6% 10.9% Forward P/E ratio 13.6x 18.3x 16.6x 21.6x 28.6x 28.9x 19.4x 17.1x 16.6x 20.8x 17.3x 21.5x 20-yr avg. 13.4x 15.2x 12.7x 16.4x 19.9x 18.2x 18.9x 17.2x 15.1x 17.6x 15.8x 15.9x Buyback yield 3.5% 1.3% 2.1% 1.6% 1.2% 1.4% 3.2% -1.4% 1.2% 1.1% -0.1% 1.7% 20-yr avg. 1.9% 1.0% 0.5% 2.4% 2.5% 3.0% 1.9% -1.4% 1.9% 1.8% -0.7% 1.9% Dividend yield 3.5% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.9% 3.8% 1.9% 2.6% 3.2% 1.3% 20-yr avg. 2.8% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1%* 3.7% 1.9% 2.9% 3.8% 2.0% Div Weight Return (%) Bbk P/E EPS
S&P intra-year declines vs. calendar year returns Despite average intra-year drops of 14.1%, annual returns were positive in 34 of 45 years 26% -10% 15% 17% 1% 26% 15% 2% 12% 27% -7% 26% 4% 7% -2% 34% 20% 31% 27% 20% -10% -13% -23% 26% 9% 3% 14% 4% -38% 23% 13% 0% 13% 30% 11% -1% 10% 19% -6% 29% 16% 27% -19% 24%23% -17%-18% -17% -7% -13% -8%-9% -34% -8% -8% -20% -6% -6% -5% -9% -3% -8% -11% -19% -12% -17% -30% -34% -14% -8% -7% -8% -10% -49% -28% -16% -19% -10% -6% -7% -12% -11% -3% -20% -7% -34% -5% -25% -10% -8% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20 2024
Contributors to real GDP growth Quarter-over-quarter, seasonally adjusted annualized rate 3.1% 3.0% 1.6% 3.2% 4.4% 2.4% 2.8% 3.4% 2.7% 0.3% -1.0% 7.4% 3.5% 6.4% 5.6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 3Q24 2Q24 1Q24 4Q23 3Q23 2Q23 1Q23 4Q22 3Q22 2Q22 1Q22 4Q21 3Q21 2Q21 1Q21 Share of nominal GDP Avg. contribution 3Q24 Consumption 68% 1.7% 2.5% Bus. fixed investment 13% 0.4% 0.6% Gov't spending 19% 0.2% 0.9% Residential 4% 0.0% -0.2% Net exports -4% -0.1% -0.4% Chg. in private inventories - 0.0% -0.2% Real GDP 100% 2.3% 3.1% 2000-2023
Consumer balance sheet Household debt service ratio 3Q24, USD trillions, not seasonally adjusted Debt payments as % of disposable personal income, SA Flows into early delinquencies % of balance delinquent 30+ days Other financial assets: 43% Mortgages: 66% Pension funds: 17% Deposits: 8% Other tangible: 5% Homes: 28% $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 1Q80: 12.4% 4Q07: 15.8% 4Q24**: 11.3% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20 Total liabilities: $20.9tn Total assets: $189.7tn Assets Liabilities Other non-revolving: 2% Revolving*: 6% Auto loans: 7% Other liabilities: 10% Student loans: 8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23 Loans 3Q24 Auto loans 8.1% Credit cards 8.8% Student loans 0.9% Mortgages 3.6%
Real consumer spending by expenditure category Personal saving rate Y/y % change, average level of spending Personal savings as a % of disposable personal income, annual 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% '60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20 2024 YTD: 4.8% Average: 8.5% 3% 7% 17% -2% 4% 3% 3% 3% 9% 0% 1% 2% 2% -6% 7% 5% 3% 3% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 YTD '24* Durable goods Nondurable goods Services
Consumer Sentiment Index and subsequent 12-month S&P 500 returns Apr. 2021: -1.2% Apr. 2020: +43.6% Feb. 2020: +29.0% Jan. 2015: -2.7% Aug. 2011: +15.4% Nov. 2008: +22.2% Jan. 2007: -4.2% Oct. 2005: +14.2% Jan. 2004: +4.4% Mar. 2003: +32.8% Jan. 2000: -2.0% Oct. 1990: +29.1% Mar. 1984: +13.5% May 1980: +20.0% May 1977: +1.2% Feb. 1975: +22.2% Aug. 1972: -6.2% Jun. 2022: +17.6% Dec. 2024: 74.0 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 '71 '73 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23 Average: 84.5 Sentiment cycle turning point and subsequent 12-month S&P 500 Index return Avg. subsequent 12-mo. S&P 500 returns 9 sentiment peaks +3.5% 9 sentiment troughs +24.1% Recession
Capex from the major AI hyperscalers* U.S. industrial production of high tech industries USD billions; Alphabet, Amazon (AWS), Meta, Microsoft, Oracle Indexed to 100 in Jan. 2020 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 Aug. 2022: CHIPS Act Recession 2 2 4 5 7 4 7 8 10 17 23 25 31 40 65 67 73 92 123 126 197 234 249 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24 '26 Capital spending %of operating cash flow** Computer equipment Communication equipment Semiconductors All industry ex-high tech
The 2025 federal budget Federal deficit and net interest outlays USD trillions % of GDP, 1973-2034, CBO Baseline Forecast Federal net debt (accumulated deficits) % of GDP, 1940-2034, CBO Baseline Forecast, end of fiscal year CBO's Baseline economic assumptions 2024 '25-'26 '27-'28 '29-'34 Real GDP growth 2.9% 2.0% 1.7% 1.8% 10-year Treasury 4.5% 4.0% 3.6% 4.0% Headline inflation (CPI) 3.2% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% Unemployment 3.8% 4.0% 4.3% 4.5% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% '40 '48 '56 '64 '72 '80 '88 '96 '04 '12 '20 '28 2024: 98.2% -15% -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% '73 '78 '83 '88 '93 '98 '03 '08 '13 '18 '23 '28 '33 Primary deficit or surplus Net interest outlays Total deficit or surplus Forecast Net interest: $1,016bn (15%) Income taxes: $2,550bn (37%) Social Security: $1,549bn (22%) Payroll taxes: $1,737bn (25%) Medicare: $1,145bn (16%) Corporate taxes: $490bn (7%) Medicaid: $600bn (9%) Other mandatory: $833bn (12%) Other: $184bn (3%) Defense: $964bn (14%) Non-defense disc.: $867bn (12%) Deficit: $1,938bn (28%) $0.0 $1.0 $2.0 $3.0 $4.0 $5.0 $6.0 $7.0 $8.0 Total spending: $7.0tn Total government spending Sourcesof financing Forecast 2034: 129.9% TCJA extension* TCJA extension* 2034: 119.1% Tariffs: $76bn (1%)
Civilian unemployment rate and year-over-year wage growth Private production and non-supervisory workers, seasonally adjusted, percent May 1975: 9.0% Nov. 1982: 10.8% Jun. 1992: 7.8% Jun. 2003: 6.3% Oct. 2009: 10.0% Apr. 2020: 14.8% Nov. 2024: 4.2% Mar. 2022: 7.0% Nov. 2024: 3.9% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24 50-year avg. Unemployment rate 6.2% Wage growth 3.9%
JOLTS job openings* JOLTS quits Total job openings, thousands, seasonally adjusted Total nonfarm quits, thousands, seasonally adjusted JOLTS layoffs Total nonfarm layoffs, thousands, seasonally adjusted Oct. 2024: 3,326 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24 Oct. 2024: 1,633 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24 13,500 Oct. 2024: 7,744 Mar. 2022: 12,182 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 '73 '76 '79 '82 '85 '88 '91 '94 '97 '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 '15 '18 '21 '24 Recession
Nonfarm payroll gains Sources of population growth Month-over-month change and 3mo. moving average, SA Contribution to annual percentage change Labor force participation rate changes % change since 2019 average, SA -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Jan '21 Jul '21 Jan '22 Jul '22 Jan '23 Jul '23 Jan '24 Jul '24 -0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.9% 1.3% '04 '07 '10 '13 '16 '19 22 '25 '28 '31 '34 '37 '40 '43 '46 '49 '52 Births minus deaths Net immigration Population growth Nov. '24 Payroll gain 227K 3mo. avg 173K Female 25-54 55 and over Male 25-54 CBO Projections*
CPI and core CPI % change vs. prior year, seasonally adjusted -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24 Recession 50-yr. avg. Oct. 2024 Nov. 2024 Headline CPI 3.7% 2.6% 2.7% Core CPI 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% Food CPI 3.6% 2.1% 2.4% Energy CPI 3.9% -4.8% -3.1% Headline PCE deflator 3.2% 2.3% 2.4% Core PCE deflator 3.2% 2.8% 2.8%
Contributors to headline CPI inflation Contribution to y/y % change in CPI, non-seasonally adjusted -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Jan '18 Jul '18 Jan '19 Jul '19 Jan '20 Jul '20 Jan '21 Jul '21 Jan '22 Jul '22 Jan '23 Jul '23 Jan '24 Jul '24 Energy Food at home Core goods Shelter Dining, recreationand other svcs. Auto insurance Jun. 2022: 9.1% Nov. 2024: 2.7%
Change in production and consumption of liquid fuels Price of oil Production, consumption and inventories, millions of barrels per day WTI crude, nominal prices, USD/barrel Production '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24* '25* '19-'25 U.S. 19.5 18.6 19.0 20.4 22.0 22.7 23.1 18.1% OPEC 33.1 29.4 30.4 32.9 32.2 32.1 32.2 -2.6% Russia 11.5 10.5 10.8 11.0 10.9 10.5 10.5 -8.7% Global 100.2 93.8 95.7 100.2 102.0 102.6 104.2 4.0% Consumption U.S. 20.5 18.2 19.9 20.0 20.3 20.3 20.5 0.0% China 14.0 14.4 15.5 15.4 16.4 16.5 16.7 19.5% India 4.9 4.5 4.7 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.8 18.3% Global 100.9 91.7 97.6 100.0 102.1 103.0 104.3 3.4% Inventory Change -0.6 2.1 -1.8 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 U.S. crude oil inventories and rig count** Million barrels, number of active rigs Jul. 3, 2008: $145.29 Feb. 12, 2009: $33.98 Jun. 13, 2014: $106.91 Feb. 11, 2016: $26.21 Oct. 3, 2018: $76.41 Apr. 21, 2020: $11.57 Mar. 8, 2022: $123.7 Dec. 31, 2024: $71.72 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24 -250 250 750 1,250 1,750 2,250 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 Inventories (incl. SPR) Active rigs
U.S. electricity consumption growth Data center expected growth in electricity demand 10yr ann. growth rate, retail sales to major end-use sectors U.S. data center energy consumption, projections through 2030 Number of electric vehicle charging points in the U.S. Thousands 8.8% 7.6% 4.5% 3.1% 2.3% 0.0% 0.2% 1.4% -1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s** 12 15 20 32 38 43 54 77 99 114 128 183 380 920 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '25F'30F Forecasts*** 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 U.S. data center energy consumption, TWh % of total U.S. power demand Share of total consumption 2024* Industrial 26% Commercial 36% Residential 38% Transportation and other 0%
The U.S. dollar The U.S. trade balance U.S. Dollar Index Current account balance, % of GDP Developed markets interest rate differentials Difference between U.S. and international 10-year yields* 3Q24: -4.2% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23 Dec. 31, 2024: 108.5 Sep. 2022: 112.1 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17 '20 '23 Dec. 31, 2024: 2.1% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% '30 '38 '46 '54 '62 '70 '78 '86 '94 '02 '10 '18 '26 Average tariff rate on U.S. goods imports for consumption Duties collected / value of total goods imports for consumption Historical Proposed Under new admin.*
Federal funds rate expectations FOMC and market expectations for the federal funds rate 3.93%3.94% 3.92% 3.90% 3.40% 3.10% 3.00% 4.38% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17 '20 '23 '26 Long run Federal funds rate FOMC year-end estimates FOMC long-run projection* Market expectations FOMC December 2024 forecasts Percent 2024 2025 2026 2027 Long run* Change in real GDP, 4Q to 4Q 2.5 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 Unemployment rate, 4Q 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 Headline PCE inflation, 4Q to 4Q 2.4 2.5 2.1 2.0 2.0 Core PCE inflation, 4Q to 4Q 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.0
The Federal Reserve balance sheet USD trillions $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9 $10 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 Treasuries MBS Other Loans Forecast* Periods of balance sheet expansion (QE) and contraction (QT), USD billions Announced Terminated Length (m) Treasuries MBS Loans** Balance sheet QE1 11/25/2008 3/31/2010 16 $300 $1,074 $959 $1,403 QE2 11/3/2010 6/29/2012 19 $829 -$196 $117 $568 QE3 9/13/2012 10/29/2014 25 $822 $874 $7 $1,674 QT1 9/20/2017 7/31/2019 22 -$371 -$257 $0 -$660 QE4 3/23/2020 3/15/2022 24 $3,286 $1,343 $205 $4,779 QT2 5/4/2022 Ongoing 31 -$1,455 -$470 $16 -$2,053
Nominal and real U.S. 10-year Treasury yields -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% '58 '61 '64 '67 '70 '73 '76 '79 '82 '85 '88 '91 '94 '97 '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 '15 '18 '21 '24 Sep. 30, 1981: 15.84% Dec. 31, 2024: 1.28% Dec. 31, 2024: 4.58% Average (1958 - present) Dec. 31, 2024 Nominal yields 5.73% 4.58% Real yields 1.93% 1.28% Inflation 3.81% 3.30% Real 10-year U.S. Treasury yield Nominal 10-year U.S. Treasury yield
Return Fixed income returns in different interest rate scenarios U.S. Treasuries 12/31/2024 12/31/2023 2024 Avg. Maturity Correlation to 10-year Correlation to S&P 500 Total return, assumes a parallel shift in the yield curve 2-Year 4.25% 4.23% 3.79% 2 years 0.75 0.00 5-Year 4.38% 3.84% 1.19% 5 0.94 -0.02 TIPS 2.13% 1.72% 1.84% 7.1 0.73 0.33 10-Year 4.58% 3.88% -1.73% 10 1.00 -0.07 30-Year 4.78% 4.03% -8.09% 30 0.93 -0.11 Sector U.S. Aggregate 4.91% 4.53% 1.25% 8.4 0.90 0.25 IG Corps 5.33% 5.06% 2.13% 10.5 0.69 0.47 Convertibles 6.22% 7.26% 10.95% - -0.04 0.86 U.S. HY 7.49% 7.59% 8.19% 4.7 0.09 0.79 Municipals 3.74% 3.22% 1.05% 13.6 0.74 0.26 MBS 5.27% 4.68% 1.20% 7.8 0.81 0.26 ABS 5.38% 5.65% 6.81% 2.3 0.42 0.22 Leveraged Loans 8.68% 10.59% 9.33% 4.7 -0.22 0.62 Yield 9.1% 3.4% -0.9% -2.5% 4.4% 4.9% -1.5% -1.2% -11.2% -3.4% 0.7% -0.1% 2.4% 8.7% 5.4% 5.3% 3.7% 7.5% 6.2% 5.3% 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 4.8% 4.4% 4.2% 8.3% 7.4% 11.4% 10.0% 10.6% 8.0% 12.1% 11.0% 20.8% 12.5% 8.9% 8.8% 6.1% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Leveraged Loans ABS MBS Municipals U.S. HY Convertibles IG Corps U.S. Aggregate 30Y UST 10Y UST TIPS 5Y UST 2Y UST 1% fall 1% rise No change
U.S. Treasury yield curve 4.4% 4.2% 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.9% 4.8% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Aug. 4, 2020 (10-year Treasury trough) Dec. 31, 2024 (Current) 3m 1y 2y 3y 5y 7y 10y 20y 30y Jul. 3, 2023 (Peak inversion*) Oct. 19, 2023 (10-year Treasury peak)
Corporate credit spreads U.S. high yield by credit rating Option-adjusted spread, 2001 - present %, J.P. Morgan Domestic High Yield Index U.S. high yield default rates By credit rating 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% '01 '04 '07 '10 '13 '16 '19 '22 0% 9% 18% 27% '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23 25yr Avg. Last 12m BB 0.72% 0.00% B 2.53% 0.31% CCC/Split CCC 6.71% 1.23% High yield* 2.97% 1.14% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% BBB BB B CCC/NR Pre-GFC Dec. '24 Spread YTW Spread YTW Avg. 149 bps 4.4% 513 bps 8.1% Current 80 bps 5.3% 287 bps 7.5% Percentile 1.1% 71% 4.7% 48% Investment grade High yield
Yield-to-worst across fixed income sectors Percent, past 10 years 1.9% 4.0% 3.4% 2.8% 2.8% 3.2% 1.0% 5.8% 6.3% 5.3% 4.5% 6.4% 6.2% 4.5% 6.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.4% 3.2% 7.9% 6.4% 6.6% 6.0% 7.5% 8.7% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% U.S. Treasuries Municipals* IG corps MBS CMBS ABS Euro IG EMD ($) EMD (LCL) EM Corp Euro HY U.S. HY Leveraged Loans 10-year median Current 10-year range Axis 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 8.0% 4.0% 0.0% 2.0% 10.0% 6.0% Weight in U.S. Agg.** 44% <1% 24% 25% 2% <1% - - - - - - - Core sectors Extended sectors
Global bond market Aggregates 12/31/2024 12/31/2023 Local USD Duration Correlation to U.S. 10yr USD trillions U.S. 4.91% 4.53% 1.25% 1.25% 6.1 years 0.92 Gbl. ex-U.S. 2.85% 2.87% - -3.53% 6.9 0.67 Japan 1.26% 0.76% -2.37% -12.42% 8.9 0.69 Germany 2.70% 2.73% 2.59% -3.83% 6.2 0.59 UK 4.66% 4.10% -1.82% -3.54% 7.7 0.58 Italy 3.11% 3.40% 5.43% -1.17% 6.2 0.47 China 1.64% 2.62% 8.20% 5.13% 6.2 0.54 Sector Euro Corp. 3.18% 3.56% 4.74% -1.82% 4.4 years 0.45 Euro HY 6.03% 7.35% 9.14% 2.31% 3.2 0.06 EMD (USD) 7.86% 7.84% - 6.54% 6.0 0.39 EMD (LCL) 6.39% 6.19% 5.35% -2.38% 5.3 0.29 EM Corp. 6.56% 6.81% - 7.63% 5.0 0.29 Yield 2024 Return $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $150 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23 EM: $40tn Developed ex-U.S.: $50tn U.S.: $56tn 12/31/1989 6/30/2024 U.S. 56.9% 38.4% Dev. ex-U.S. 41.7% 34.2% EM 1.4% 27.4%
Muni tax-equivalent and Treasury yield curves State and local, federal and corporate debt % of GDP, 1930-2024, end of fiscal year State Rainy Day Fund balances USD billions, 1988-2025, fiscal year 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% '30 '36 '42 '48 '54 '60 '66 '72 '78 '84 '90 '96 '02 '08 '14 '20 Federal debt State and local debt FY24: 98.2% FY24: 11.5% Nonfinancial corporate debt FY24: 48.0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24 Rainy day fund (RDF) balances Median RDF balances (% of general fund spending) 4.9%4.8% 4.9% 5.1% 6.0% 6.5% 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.9% 4.8% 5.7% 5.7% 6.2% 6.5% 7.5% 7.9% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% AAA Munitax-equivalent yield curve U.S. Treasury yield curve 3m 1y 2y 3y 5y 7y 10y 20y 30y BBB Munitax-equivalent yield curve Estimates*
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate intra-year declines vs. calendar year returns Despite average intra-year drops of 3.5%, annual returns were positive in 44 of 49 years 16 3 1 2 3 6 33 8 15 22 15 3 8 15 9 16 7 10 -3 19 4 10 9 -1 12 8 10 4 4 2 4 7 5 6 7 8 4 -2 6 1 3 4 0 9 8 -2 -13 6 1 -1 -2 -2 -7 -9 -4 -2 -4 -5 -2 -2 -5 -2 -2 -3 -1 -2 -2 -7 -2 -4 -2 -3 -4 -3 -4 -2 -5 -5 -2 -2 -2 -5 -2 -3 -2 -1 -5 -1 -3 -4 -2 -3 -2 -6 -4 -17 -7 -4 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% '76 '81 '86 '91 '96 '01 '06 '11 '16 '21 2024
Yield-to-worst and subsequent 5-year annualized returns Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Total Return Index R² = 88% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 17% 19% Subsequent annualized five-year returns Starting yield 2010s 2000s 1990s 1980s 1970s As of 12/31/2024, a current yield of 4.91% implies a forward 5-yr. return of 5.07%
Returns Local USD Local USD Ann. Beta Regions U.S. (S&P 500) - 25.0 - 26.3 13.9 1.0 AC World ex-U.S. 13.2 6.1 14.7 16.2 5.2 1.0 EAFE 11.8 4.3 16.8 18.9 5.7 1.0 Europe ex-UK 8.1 1.0 17.3 22.7 6.0 1.1 Emerging markets 13.7 8.1 10.3 10.3 3.4 1.0 Selected Countries Japan 21.2 8.7 29.0 20.8 6.3 0.8 United Kingdom 9.5 7.5 7.7 14.1 4.9 1.0 France 1.8 -4.6 18.1 22.3 5.8 1.2 Canada 23.0 12.7 13.3 16.4 5.9 1.1 Germany 18.4 11.0 19.8 24.0 5.7 1.3 China 19.8 19.7 -10.6 -11.0 2.5 0.9 Taiwan 44.3 35.1 31.1 31.3 12.0 1.0 India 15.7 12.4 22.0 21.3 6.9 0.9 Brazil -11.4 -29.5 22.7 33.4 -2.5 1.3 2024 2023 15-years Share of global market capitalization % weight in the MSCI All Country World Index, USD, monthly Revenue exposure vs. country of listing % of total revenue derived from foreign countries 77% 59% 55% 41% 36% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% UK Europe ex-UK Japan U.S. EM 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% '87 '92 '97 '02 '07 '12 '17 '22 U.S. Europe ex-UK EM Japan 67% 5% 10% 10%
Sources of global equity returns* Total return, USD 13.9% 6.3% 6.0% 3.4% 2.5% 26.3% 22.7% 20.8% 10.3% -11.0% 25.0% 19.7% 8.7% 8.1% 1.0% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% U.S. Japan Europe exUK EM China U.S. Europe exUK Japan EM China U.S. China Japan EM Europe exUK Currency Multiples Dividends Earnings Total return 15-years ann. 2023 2024
International: Price-to-earnings discount vs. U.S. International: Price-to-earnings discount vs. the U.S. by sector MSCI All Country World ex-U.S. vs. S&P 500, next 12 months MSCI All Country World ex-U.S. minus S&P 500, next 12 months -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% Cons. disc. Financials Index Technology Utilities Materials Energy Industrials Cons. staples Comm. services Healthcare -45% -40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24 20-yr. avg. P/E ratio Current P/E ratio S&P 500 15.9x 21.5x ACWI ex-U.S. 13.1x 13.3x Dec. 31, 2024: -38.0% +1 Std. dev.: -7.9% -2 Std. dev.: -37.4% -1 Std. dev.: -27.6% Average: -17.8% Discount vs. the U.S. Premium. vs. the U.S. Current 20-year average
Global earnings estimates Global valuations Jan. 2005 = 100, next 12 months consensus estimates, U.S. dollars Current and 25-year next 12 months price-to-earnings ratio 21.5x 14.7x 13.9x 12.0x 10.2x 19.5x 14.1x 13.5x 11.9x 9.3x 5x 9x 13x 17x 21x 25x 29x 33x 37x U.S. Japan Europe ex-UK EM China 25-year average 44x 25-year range Jan.1, 2024 Current 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23 U.S. China Japan Europe ex-UK EM Recession
Historical policy rates and forward curves Equity performance in different interest rate environments Target policy rates and market implied forward rates Annualized total return by 10-year Treasury rate ranges, USD, 1979 - present 11% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 Fed ECB BoE BoJ 7.9% 6.1% 6.0% 10.6% 13.3% 13.5% 14.6% 6.0% 11.0% 15.3% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 0-2% 2-3% 3-4% 4-5% 5%+ U.S. 10-year Treasury rate ranges % of time 14% 11% 14% 49% Style % Value % Growth U.S. equities 37% 63% Intl. dev. equities 63% 37%
Top 50 performing companies globally Weight of market cap and earnings for top 10 stocks # of companies listed internationally, MSCI All Country World Index % of market capitalization, as of latest month-end, LTM earnings 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24 DM ex-U.S. EM Average: 33 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Top 10 weight Top 10 earnings
International growth sectors vs. U.S. growth Buyback and dividend yields Jan. 2015 = 100, total return, U.S. dollars Previous quarter-end* 5.2% 4.2% 3.5% 3.0% 2.7% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% UK Europe ex-UK Japan U.S. EM 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 U.S. growth EM Asia tech Europe biotech Europe luxury goods Dividend yield Buyback yield
Global Composite (manufacturing & services combined) Purchasing Managers’ Index, quarterly Nov Dec Global 52.4 - Manufacturing 50.0 - Services 53.1 - DM 52.2 - EM 52.8 - U.S. 54.9 56.6 Japan 50.1 50.8 UK 50.5 50.5 Euro Area 48.3 49.5 Germany 47.2 47.8 France 45.9 46.7 Italy 47.7 - Spain 53.2 - China 52.3 - India 58.6 60.7 Brazil 55.1 - 2023 2019 2024 Emerging 2018 2014 '24 Developed 2020 2021 2022 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2007 2015 2016 2017
Average tariff rate on U.S. goods imports from China U.S. goods imports by country Duties collected / value of total goods imports for consumption % of total U.S. goods imports, annual and YTD 2024 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24 China Euro Area Canada Mexico ASEAN India Taiwan& South Korea 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% '89 '94 '99 '04 '09 '14 '19 '24 YTD '24: 10.9% Jan. 2018: Start of Trade War 1.0 Mar. 2020: COVID19 pandemic Dec. 2001: China joins the WTO
Semiconductor production by location Mining production by location % global share % global share, 2023 7% 8% 18% 68% 17% 78% 19% 15% 47% 19% 7% 35% 32% 6% 5% 12% 5% 44% 6% 5% 6% 4% 4% 75% 6% 19% 32% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Cobalt Nickel Zinc Copper Lithium Rare earths China APAC ex-China South America U.S. North America ex-U.S. Europe Africa & RoW 37% 19% 13% 12% 11% 13% 14% 44% 24% 13% 9% 8% 8% 9% 19% 17% 18% 15% 15% 15% 15% 13% 15% 21% 18% 19% 19% 22% 22% 22% 18% 17% 17% 11% 15% 24% 22% 21% 3% 8% 6% 6% 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2025F 2030F 2032F Others* China Taiwan South Korea Japan Europe U.S.
U.S. Large Cap EAFE EME Bonds Corp. HY Munis Currcy. EMD Cmdty. REITs Hedge funds Private equity Gold Ann. Volatility U.S. Large Cap 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.32 0.86 0.42 -0.47 0.75 0.40 0.77 0.82 0.76 0.24 16% EAFE 1.00 0.90 0.35 0.86 0.50 -0.62 0.81 0.40 0.67 0.80 0.76 0.30 16% EME 1.00 0.33 0.83 0.43 -0.70 0.80 0.45 0.56 0.75 0.75 0.41 18% Bonds 1.00 0.44 0.88 -0.47 0.69 -0.29 0.54 -0.02 0.15 0.64 5% Corp. HY 1.00 0.50 -0.53 0.89 0.43 0.71 0.76 0.72 0.35 9% Munis 1.00 -0.51 0.75 -0.25 0.63 0.09 0.28 0.51 5% Currencies 1.00 -0.65 -0.30 -0.34 -0.28 -0.56 -0.61 5% EMD 1.00 0.17 0.68 0.54 0.59 0.55 8% Commodities 1.00 0.23 0.64 0.59 0.13 17% REITs 1.00 0.55 0.63 0.28 18% Hedge funds 1.00 0.74 0.09 5% Private equity 1.00 0.12 0% Gold 1.00 13%
Private Equity Venture Capital Direct Lending U.S. Core RE Infrastructure Transport Hedge Funds APAC Core RE Europe Core RE CML - Senior* 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 10-year annualized return Trailing 10-year correlation to 60/40 portfolio 60/40 Correlations, returns and yields 10-year correlations and 10-year annualized total returns, 3Q14 –2Q24 Bubble size = yield 3% 0% Infrastructure Real estate Private markets Hedge funds
-6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 Global core infrastructure returns 1Q09-2Q24, rolling 4-quarter returns from income and capital appreciation Income Capital appreciation Segment Weight in index* Power 57% Transport 21% Water 10% Communication 7% Other 5%
-1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 '80 '82 '83 '85 '86 '88 '89 '91 '92 '94 '95 '97 '98 '00 '01 '03 '04 '06 '07 '09 '10 '12 '13 '15 '16 '18 '19 '21 '22 '24 U.S. REITs, direct real estate and equities 12-quarter rolling correlations, total return Avg. 4Q80 - 1Q24 3Q24 Direct real estate/S&P 500 correlation -0.1 -0.5 REITs/S&P 500 correlation 0.6 0.8
9% 9% 15% 14% 6% 11% 36% 25% 17% 16% 15% 2% 11% 14% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Other** Financials Industrials Healthcare Comm. Services Cons. Disc. Tech Private equity vs. small cap sector weights 2023 Russell 2000 Private equity Average market value and median age at IPO Number of listed U.S. companies* and market cap. Number, S&P 500 market capitalization in USD trillions 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23 # of listed companies Market cap. 4 6 8 10 12 $0.0 $0.5 $1.0 $1.5 $2.0 1980-1989 1990-1998 1999-2000 2001-2023 Market value (LHS, USD billions) Median age (RHS, years)
Public and private manager dispersion Based on returns from 4Q14 –3Q24* -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Global Large Cap Equities Global Bond U.S. Core Real Estate U.S. Non-core Real Estate Global Private Equity Global Venture Capital Hedge Funds 75th percentile 25th percentile Median 7.8% -3.0% 22.9% 9.7% 13.6% 7.3% 5.8% 13.8% -0.4% -0.4% 2.0% 17.3% -4.5% 1.2%
Ann. Vol. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Large Cap Small Cap REITs REITs REITs Small Cap REITs REITs Small Cap EM Equity Cash Large Cap Small Cap REITs Comdty. Large Cap Large Cap 13.9% 20.6% 27.9% 8.3% 19.7% 38.8% 28.0% 2.8% 21.3% 37.8% 1.8% 31.5% 20.0% 41.3% 16.1% 26.3% 25.0% Small Cap EM Equity Small Cap Fixed Income High Yield Large Cap Large Cap Large Cap High Yield DM Equity Fixed Income REITs EM Equity Large Cap Cash DM Equity Small Cap 10.3% 17.9% 26.9% 7.8% 19.6% 32.4% 13.7% 1.4% 14.3% 25.6% 0.0% 28.7% 18.7% 28.7% 1.5% 18.9% 11.5% REITs REITs EM Equity High Yield EM Equity DM Equity Fixed Income Fixed Income Large Cap Large Cap REITs Small Cap Large Cap Comdty. High Yield Small Cap Asset Alloc. 9.4% 16.8% 19.2% 3.1% 18.6% 23.3% 6.0% 0.5% 12.0% 21.8% -4.0% 25.5% 18.4% 27.1% -12.7% 16.9% 10.0% Asset Alloc. DM Equity Comdty. Large Cap DM Equity Asset Alloc. Asset Alloc. Cash Comdty. Small Cap High Yield DM Equity Asset Alloc. Small Cap Fixed Income Asset Alloc. High Yield 7.2% 16.5% 16.8% 2.1% 17.9% 14.9% 5.2% 0.0% 11.8% 14.6% -4.1% 22.7% 10.6% 14.8% -13.0% 14.1% 9.2% High Yield Comdty. Large Cap Cash Small Cap High Yield Small Cap DM Equity EM Equity Asset Alloc. Large Cap Asset Alloc. DM Equity Asset Alloc. Asset Alloc. High Yield EM Equity 5.9% 16.1% 15.1% 0.1% 16.3% 7.3% 4.9% -0.4% 11.6% 14.6% -4.4% 19.5% 8.3% 13.5% -13.9% 14.0% 8.1% DM Equity Large Cap High Yield Asset Alloc. Large Cap REITs Cash Asset Alloc. REITs High Yield Asset Alloc. EM Equity Fixed Income DM Equity DM Equity REITs Comdty. 5.7% 15.1% 14.8% -0.7% 16.0% 2.9% 0.0% -2.0% 8.6% 10.4% -5.8% 18.9% 7.5% 11.8% -14.0% 11.4% 5.4% EM Equity Asset Alloc. Asset Alloc. Small Cap Asset Alloc. Cash High Yield High Yield Asset Alloc. REITs Small Cap High Yield High Yield High Yield Large Cap EM Equity Cash 3.4% 10.4% 13.3% -4.2% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% -2.7% 8.3% 8.7% -11.0% 12.6% 7.0% 1.0% -18.1% 10.3% 5.3% Fixed Income High Yield DM Equity DM Equity Fixed Income Fixed Income EM Equity Small Cap Fixed Income Fixed Income Comdty. Fixed Income Cash Cash EM Equity Fixed Income REITs 2.4% 9.4% 8.2% -11.7% 4.2% -2.0% -1.8% -4.4% 2.6% 3.5% -11.2% 8.7% 0.5% 0.0% -19.7% 5.5% 4.9% Cash Fixed Income Fixed Income Comdty. Cash EM Equity DM Equity EM Equity DM Equity Comdty. DM Equity Comdty. Comdty. Fixed Income Small Cap Cash DM Equity 1.2% 4.7% 6.5% -13.3% 0.1% -2.3% -4.5% -14.6% 1.5% 1.7% -13.4% 7.7% -3.1% -1.5% -20.4% 5.1% 4.3% Comdty. Cash Cash EM Equity Comdty. Comdty. Comdty. Comdty. Cash Cash EM Equity Cash REITs EM Equity REITs Comdty. Fixed Income -1.0% 0.9% 0.1% -18.2% -1.1% -9.5% -17.0% -24.7% 0.3% 0.8% -14.2% 2.2% -5.1% -2.2% -24.9% -7.9% 1.3% 2010–2024
Asset class valuations Z-scores based on 25-year average valuation measures -1.09 -0.62 -0.20 0.11 0.24 0.42 0.62 0.88 1.13 1.19 1.29 1.65 -0.85 -0.10 -0.36 -0.34 0.09 0.23 0.14 0.88 0.87 0.51 0.89 1.02 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 Treasuries Munis** DM Equity ex-U.S. EM Equity MBS ABS U.S. Small Cap U.S. IG U.S. High Yield U.S. Value U.S. Growth U.S. Large Cap Fwd. P/E Option adj. spread* Jan. 1, 2024 Current Option adj. spread* Fwd. P/E Fwd. P/E Yield-toworst* Yield-toworst* P/B Fwd. P/E Option adj. spread* Option adj. spread* Fwd. P/E
S&P 500 calendar year price returns 1995–2024 Number of S&P 500 stocks that ended the year down 5% or more 1995–2024 46 97 73 181 227 195 230 326 24 92 151 83 213 461 48 72 211 70 27 82 221 95 87 287 35 163 48 327 126 133 0 100 200 300 400 500 '95 '99 '03 '07 '11 '15 '19 '23 Average: 148 34% 20% 31% 27% 20% -10%-13% -23% 26% 9% 3% 14% 4% -38% 23% 13% 0% 13% 30% 11% -1% 10% 19% -6% 29% 16% 27% -19% 24% 23% -0.5 -0.25 0 0.25 0.5 '95 '99 '03 '07 '11 '15 '19 '23 Average: 10.5%
All-time highs and market floors Average cumulative S&P 500 total returns S&P 500 price index, daily, 1950–today Jan. 1, 1988–Dec. 31, 2024 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 '50 '55 '60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20 S&P 500 price index All-time highs that set a market floor* 3.0% 6.0% 12.4% 25.3% 40.0% 74.7% 2.4% 6.1% 13.4% 28.9% 46.3% 80.9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 3 months 6 months 1 year 2 year 3 year 5 year Invest on any day** Invest at a new high Number of all-time highs (ATHs) in 2024 57 %of days S&P 500 closes at an ATH 6.7% %of ATHs that act as market floor* 31.1%
Range of stock, bond and blended total returns Annual total returns, 1950–2024 -37% -13% -20% -2% -2% 1% -1% 1% 1% 6% 1% 5% 52% 33% 34% 29% 18% 20% 20% 14% 16% 18% 11% 15% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1-yr. 5-yr. rolling 10-yr. rolling 20-yr. rolling Annual avg. total return Growth of $100,000 over 20 years Stocks 11.6% $895,754 Bonds 5.2% $276,382 60/40 portfolio 9.4% $600,708
60/40 portfolio composition by asset class Start of 2019 to current, no rebalancing 25% 26% 23% 26% 29% 28% 27% 25% 28% 33% 34% 30% 33% 37% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 40% 36% 34% 30% 32% 29% 27% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Current Fixed Income International U.S. Growth U.S. Value
20-year manager return dispersion and growth of capital By asset type, annualized total returns, growth of $1,000 invested 20 years ago* 234% 260% 232% 546% 251% 146% 154% 24% 43% 56% 80% 84% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% LargeCap Blend MidCap Blend SmallCap Blend Large Growth Large Value Foreign Large Blend EM Equity Ultrashort Bond Short-Term Bond Interm. Core + Bond Multisector Bond High Yield $5,433 $7,774 $4,424 $7,020 $3,975 $6,293 $11,386 $5,926 $2,159 $3,619 $2,520 $4,056 $1,350 $1,448 $1,877 $1,677 $2,242 $2,034 $2,830 $2,506 $3,348 $1,587 Growth of $1,000 invested with bottom decile manager Growth of $1,000 invested with top decile manager $6,320 $3,811 Cumulative outperformance
Investment opportunities outside of CDs Peak 6-month certificate of deposit (CD) rate during previous rate hiking cycles and subsequent 12-month total returns 30% 12% 18% 13% 6% 9% 12% 31% 19% 38% -11% 21% 31% 36% 30% 16% 30% -1% 15% 22% 26% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Jun. '84–Jun. '85 Mar. '89–Mar. '90 Dec. '94–Dec. '95 May. '00–May. '01 Jun. '06–Jun. '07 Dec. '18–Dec. '19 Sep. '23–Sep. '24 2000 2006 2018 1994 1989 1984 2023 Peak CD rate Avg. 12mo. subsequent total return 6-month CDs 7% Bloomberg U.S. Agg 14% S&P 500 24% 60/40 portfolio 20%
S&P 500 returns around the start of Fed cutting cycles U.S. 10-yr returns around the start of Fed cutting cycles %, price return, indexed to zero at the first cut %, total return, indexed to zero at the first cut -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 -12-9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 1215182124 First cut -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 -12-9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 1215182124 1995 1984 1989 2007 2001 First cut Months around the first cut Months around the first cut 1984 1995 1989 2007 2001 2019 2019 2024 2024
Percentage of Republicans and Democrats who rate national economic conditions as excellent or good Dates in office Jan. ‘01–Jan. ‘09 Jan. ‘09–Jan. ‘17 Jan. ‘17–Jan. ‘21 Jan. ‘21–Jan. ‘25 Administration Bush Obama Trump Biden Real GDP growth 1.9% 2.2% 1.8% 3.1% S&P 500 return -4.5% 16.3% 16.0% 13.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 10% 41% Republican / Lean Republican Democrat / Lean Democrat Election Day
Fixed income: The Bloomberg 1-3 Month U.S. Treasury Bill Index includes all publicly issued zero-coupon US Treasury Bills that have a remaining maturity of less than 3 months and more than 1 month, are rated investment grade, and have $250 million or more of outstanding face value. In addition, the securities must be denominated in U.S. dollars and must be fixed rate and non convertible. The Bloomberg Global High Yield Index is a multi-currency flagship measure of the global high yield debt market. The index represents the union of the US High Yield, the Pan-European High Yield, and Emerging Markets (EM) Hard Currency High Yield Indices. The high yield and emerging markets sub-components are mutually exclusive. Until January 1, 2011, the index also included CMBS high yield securities. The Bloomberg Municipal Index: consists of a broad selection of investment-grade general obligation and revenue bonds of maturities ranging from one year to 30 years. It is an unmanaged index representative of the tax-exempt bond market. The Bloomberg US Dollar Floating Rate Note (FRN) Index provides a measure of the U.S. dollar denominated floating rate note market. The Bloomberg US Corporate Investment Grade Index is an unmanaged index consisting of publicly issued US Corporate and specified foreign debentures and secured notes that are rated investment grade (Baa3/BBB or higher) by at least two ratings agencies, have at least one year to final maturity and have at least $250 million par amount outstanding. To qualify, bonds must be SEC-registered. The Bloomberg US High Yield Index covers the universe of fixed rate, non-investment grade debt. Eurobonds and debt issues from countries designated as emerging markets (sovereign rating of Baa1/BBB+/BBB+ and below using the middle of Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch) are excluded, but Canadian and global bonds (SEC registered) of issuers in non-EMG countries are included. The Bloomberg US Mortgage Backed Securities Index is an unmanaged index that measures the performance of investment grade fixed-rate mortgage backed pass-through securities of GNMA, FNMA and FHLMC. The Bloomberg US TIPS Index consists of Inflation-Protection securities issued by the U.S. Treasury. The J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Bond Global Index(EMBI)includes U.S. dollar denominated Brady bonds, Eurobonds, traded loans and local market debt instruments issued by sovereign and quasi-sovereign entities. The J.P. Morgan Domestic High Yield Index is designed to mirror the investable universe of the U.S. dollar domestic high yield corporate debt market. The J.P. Morgan Corporate Emerging Markets Bond Index Broad Diversified (CEMBI Broad Diversified)is an expansion of the J.P. Morgan Corporate Emerging Markets Bond Index (CEMBI). The CEMBI is a market capitalization weighted index consisting of U.S. dollar denominated emerging market corporate bonds. The J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global Diversified (EMBI Global Diversified) tracks total returns for U.S. dollar-denominated debt instruments issued by emerging market sovereign and quasi-sovereign entities: Brady bonds, loans, Eurobonds. The index limits the exposure of some of the larger countries. The J.P. Morgan GBI EM Global Diversified tracks the performance of local currency debt issued by emerging market governments, whose debt is accessible by most of the international investor base. The U.S. Treasury Index is a component of the U.S. Government index. All indexes are unmanaged and an individual cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not include fees or expenses. Equities: The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue-chip U.S. stocks. The MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed and emerging markets. The MSCI EAFE Index(Europe, Australasia, Far East)is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the US & Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets. The MSCI Europe Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance in Europe. The MSCI Pacific Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the Pacific region. The Russell 1000 Index® measures the performance of the 1,000 largest companies in the Russell 3000. The Russell 1000 Growth Index® measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 Value Index® measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with lower priceto-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index® measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 2000 Growth Index® measures the performance of those Russell 2000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Value Index® measures the performance of those Russell 2000 companies with lower priceto-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 3000 Index® measures the performance of the 3,000 largest U.S. companies based on total market capitalization. The Russell Midcap Index® measures the performance of the 800 smallest companies in the Russell 1000 Index. The Russell Midcap Growth Index ® measures the performance of those Russell Midcap companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The stocks are also members of the Russell 1000 Growth index. The Russell Midcap Value Index ® measures the performance of those Russell Midcap companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The stocks are also members of the Russell 1000 Value index. The S&P 500 Index is widely regarded as the best single gauge of the U.S. equities market. The index includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The S&P 500 Index focuses on the large-cap segment of the market; however, since it includes a significant portion of the total value of the market, it also represents the market.
Other asset classes: The Alerian MLP Index is a composite of the 50 most prominent energy Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) that provides investors with an unbiased, comprehensive benchmark for the asset class. The Bloomberg Commodity Index and related sub-indices are composed of futures contracts on physical commodities and represents twenty two separate commodities traded on U.S. exchanges, with the exception of aluminum, nickel, and zinc The Cambridge Associates U.S. Global Buyout and Growth Index® is based on data compiled from 1,768 global (U.S. & ex –U.S.) buyout and growth equity funds, including fully liquidated partnerships, formed between 1986 and 2013. The CS/Tremont Hedge Fund Index is compiled by Credit Suisse Tremont Index, LLC. It is an asset-weighted hedge fund index and includes only funds, as opposed to separate accounts. The Index uses the Credit Suisse/Tremont database, which tracks over 4500 funds, and consists only of funds with a minimum of US$50 million under management, a 12-month track record, and audited financial statements. It is calculated and rebalanced on a monthly basis, and shown net of all performance fees and expenses. It is the exclusive property of Credit Suisse Tremont Index, LLC. The HFRI Monthly Indices (HFRI) are equally weighted performance indexes, utilized by numerous hedge fund managers as a benchmark for their own hedge funds. The HFRI are broken down into 4 main strategies, each with multiple sub strategies. All single-manager HFRI Index constituents are included in the HFRI Fund Weighted Composite, which accounts for over 2200 funds listed on the internal HFR Database. The NAREIT EQUITY REIT Index is designed to provide the most comprehensive assessment of overall industry performance, and includes all tax-qualified real estate investment trusts (REITs) that are listed on the NYSE, the American Stock Exchange or the NASDAQ National Market List. The NFI-ODCE, short for NCREIF Fund Index -Open End Diversified Core Equity, is an index of investment returns reporting on both a historical and current basis the results of 33 open-end commingled funds pursuing a core investment strategy, some of which have performance histories dating back to the 1970s. The NFI-ODCE Index is capitalization-weighted and is reported gross of fees. Measurement is time-weighted. Definitions: Investing in alternative assets involves higher risks than traditional investments and is suitable only for sophisticated investors. Alternative investments involve greater risks than traditional investments and should not be deemed a complete investment program. They are not tax efficient and an investor should consult with his/her tax advisor prior to investing. Alternative investments have higher fees than traditional investments and they may also be highly leveraged and engage in speculative investment techniques, which can magnify the potential for investment loss or gain. The value of the investment may fall as well as rise and investors may get back less than they invested. Bonds are subject to interest rate risks. Bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise. Investments in commodities may have greater volatility than investments in traditional securities, particularly if the instruments involve leverage. The value of commodity-linked derivative instruments may be affected by changes in overall market movements, commodity index volatility, changes in interest rates, or factors affecting a particular industry or commodity, such as drought, floods, weather, livestock disease, embargoes, tariffs and international economic, political and regulatory developments. Use of leveraged commodity-linked derivatives creates an opportunity for increased return but, at the same time, creates the possibility for greater loss. Derivatives may be riskier than other types of investments because they may be more sensitive to changes in economic or market conditions than other types of investments and could result in losses that significantly exceed the original investment. The use of derivatives may not be successful, resulting in investment losses, and the cost of such strategies may reduce investment returns. Distressed Restructuring Strategies employ an investment process focused on corporate fixed income instruments, primarily on corporate credit instruments of companies trading at significant discounts to their value at issuance or obliged (par value) at maturity as a result of either formal bankruptcy proceeding or financial market perception of near term proceedings. Investments in emerging markets can be more volatile. The normal risks of investing in foreign countries are heightened when investing in emerging markets. In addition, the small size of securities markets and the low trading volume may lead to a lack of liquidity, which leads to increased volatility. Also, emerging markets may not provide adequate legal protection for private or foreign investment or private property. The price of equity securities may rise, or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company’s financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. These price movements may result from factors affecting individual companies, sectors or industries, or the securities market as a whole, such as changes in economic or political conditions. Equity securities are subject to “stock market risk” meaning that stock prices in general may decline over short or extended periods of time. Equity market neutral strategies employ sophisticated quantitative techniques of analyzing price data to ascertain information about future price movement and relationships between securities, select securities for purchase and sale. Equity Market Neutral Strategies typically maintain characteristic net equity market exposure no greater than 10% long or short. Global macro strategies trade a broad range of strategies in which the investment process is predicated on movements in underlying economic variables and the impact these have on equity, fixed income, hard currency and commodity markets. International investing involves a greater degree of risk and increased volatility. Changes in currency exchange rates and differences in accounting and taxation policies outside the U.S. can raise or lower returns. Some overseas markets may not be as politically and economically stable as the United States and other nations. There is no guarantee that the use of long and short positions will succeed in limiting an investor's exposure to domestic stock market movements, capitalization, sector swings or other risk factors. Using long and short selling strategies may have higher portfolio turnover rates. Short selling involves certain risks, including additional costs associated with covering short positions and a possibility of unlimited loss on certain short sale positions. Merger arbitrage strategies which employ an investment process primarily focused on opportunities in equity and equity related instruments of companies which are currently engaged in a corporate transaction. Mid-capitalization investing typically carries more risk than investing in well-established "blue-chip" companies. Historically, mid-cap companies' stock has experienced a greater degree of market volatility than the average stock. Price to forward earnings is a measure of the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) using forecasted earnings. Price to book value compares a stock's market value to its book value. Price to cash flow is a measure of the market's expectations of a firm's future financial health. Price to dividends is the ratio of the price of a share on a stock exchange to the dividends per share paid in the previous year, used as a measure of a company's potential as an investment. Real estate investments may be subject to a higher degree of market risk because of concentration in a specific industry, sector or geographical sector. Real estate investments may be subject to risks including, but not limited to, declines in the value of real estate, risks related to general and economic conditions, changes in the value of the underlying property owned by the trust and defaults by borrower. Relative Value Strategies maintain positions in which the investment thesis is predicated on realization of a valuation discrepancy in the relationship between multiple securities. Small-capitalization investing typically carries more risk than investing in well-established "blue-chip" companies since smaller companies generally have a higher risk of failure. Historically, smaller companies' stock has experienced a greater degree of market volatility than the average stock.
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